SOME UPS THOUGHTS or NITWITS DON"T LIKE FACTS
Posted: June 7th, 2009, 2:37 pm
Vmans' on crac....errr crack staff have sifted thru the pages of received emails & put together some facts re. UPS' ooc schedules:
The out of conference strength for any team is calculated by:
St = (((0.9 * H) + (1.1 * A) + (0.7 * h) + (0.8 * a) -(0.9 * C)) / (H + A + h + a + C))
H = Home games against BCS teams (and Notre Dame)
A = Neutral or Away games against BCS teams (and Notre Dame)
h = Home games against non-BCS teams
a = Away games against non-BCS teams
C = Cupcakes, games against any team that doesn’t fall into one of the above categories ie 1aa teams.
The out of conference strength for any conference is calculated by:
Sc = SUM(St) / COUNT(St)
* The Pac 10 plays very few cupcakes, not to mention a round-robin schedule
* The teams that finish towards the top of their division / conference standings play a tougher out of conference schedule.
* Massive quantities of numbers can be prescribed instead of Ambien
ACC
H A h a C St
Florida State 1 2 0 0 1 0.55
Boston College 0 1 2 0 1 0.4
Maryland 1 1 1 0 1 0.45
Wake Forest 2 0 0 1 1 0.425
Clemson 0 1 2 0 1 0.4
N. C.St. 2 0 0 0 2 0
Virginia Tech 1 1 1 1 0 0.875
Georgia Tech 1 2 0 0 1 0.55
North Car. 0 1 1 0 2 0
Miami 1 1 0 1 1 0.475
Virginia 1 0 1 1 1 0.375
Duke 0 1 0 1 2 0.025
0.377083333
Big 12
H A h a C St
Missouri 0 1 1 1 1 0.425
Nebraska 0 1 3 0 0 0.8
Kansas 1 0 2 1 0 0.775
Kansas St 0 1 0 1 2 0.025
Colorado 0 1 2 1 0 0.825
Iowa St 1 0 2 1 0 0.775
Texas 0 0 3 1 0 0.725
Oklahoma 0 2 1 0 1 0.5
Tex Tech 0 0 2 1 1 0.325
Ok St 1 0 2 0 1 0.35
Baylor 1 1 1 0 1 0.45
Tex A&M 0 1 3 0 0 0.8
0.564583333
Big East
H A h a C St
Cincinnati 1 1 1 1 1 0.52
Pittsburgh 1 1 1 1 1 0.52
West Virginia 1 1 2 0 1 0.5
Rutgers 0 1 1 1 2 0.16
Connecticut 1 2 0 1 1 0.6
South Florida 1 1 0 1 2 0.2
Louisville 0 1 2 1 1 0.48
Syracuse 2 1 1 0 1 0.54
0.44
Big Ten
H A h a C St
Penn State 1 0 2 0 1 0.35
Ohio State 1 0 2 1 0 0.775
Michigan State 0 1 2 0 1 0.4
Iowa 1 1 1 0 1 0.45
Northwestern 0 1 2 0 1 0.4
Minnesota 1 1 1 0 1 0.45
Wisconsin 0 1 2 0 1 0.4
Illinois 0 2 1 0 1 0.5
Purdue 1 1 2 0 0 0.85
Michigan 1 0 2 0 1 0.35
Indiana 0 1 1 1 1 0.425
0.486363636
Pac 10
H A h a C St
USC 0 2 1 0 0 0.966666667
Oregon 1 0 1 1 0 0.8
Oregon State 1 0 0 1 1 0.266666667
California 1 1 0 0 1 0.366666667
Arizona 0 1 1 0 1 0.3
Stanford 1 1 1 0 0 0.9
Arizona State 0 1 1 0 1 0.3
UCLA 1 1 1 0 0 0.9
Wash State 0 1 2 0 0 0.833333333
Washington 1 1 1 0 0 0.9
0.653333333
SEC
H A h a C St
Florida 1 0 2 0 1 0.35
Georgia 1 2 0 0 1 0.55
Vanderbilt 1 0 1 1 1 0.375
South Carolina 1 1 1 0 1 0.45
Tennessee 1 0 3 0 0 0.75
Kentucky 1 0 1 1 1 0 .375
Alabama 0 1 2 0 1 0.4
Mississippi 0 0 1 1 2 -0.075
LSU 0 1 3 0 0 0.8
Auburn 1 0 2 0 1 0.35
Arkansas 0 1 2 0 1 0.4
Miss St 1 0 1 1 1 0.375
0.425
____________________________________________________________________________________________
I think the Big Ten’s problems aren’t because the teams are not good enough to compete; it is simply because they are not prepared to compete. After doing the research and "crunching the numbers" from the past three years (where the Big Ten went 0-6 in the BCS), I realized that the Big Ten has had one of the softest strength of schedules over the past three years, and was by far the softest in 2008.
According to Jeff Sagarin’s strength of schedule rankings (which rates every team's SOS in Division I from 1 to 242, 1 being the toughest), the average SOS rank of the top-5 Big Ten teams this year was 55. The SEC was the highest with an average rank of 19.2
Here’s a look at the out of conference games by the top-5 Big Ten teams in 2008.
Penn State (4-0): Coastal Carolina, Oregon State, @Syracuse, Temple
Ohio State (3-1): Youngstown State, Ohio, @ (1)USC, Troy
Michigan State (3-1): @Cal, Eastern Michigan, Florida Atlantic, Notre Dame
Iowa (3-1): Maine, Florida International, Iowa State, @Pitt
Northwestern (4-0): Syracuse, @Duke, Southern Illinois, Ohio
Out of the top-5 Big Ten teams, only one played a ranked out of conference game (OSU@USC). The Big Ten is simply not good enough for their teams to get away with playing such soft outside competition. Teams like Coastal Carolina, Duke, Youngstown State and Florida International/Atlantic do nothing to improve their teams. Ohio State might as well have had intrasquad scrimmages than play some of these games. Just look at the picture above and tell me Youngstown State doesn't look like a team you would see on Friday Night Lights. Beanie Wells looks like he's a counselor at Offense-Defense peewee summer camp.
In most facets of life, success comes through meaningful experience. A failure to challenge yourself makes it much harder to reach your potential through these experiences.
I have a feeling Big Ten teams are reluctant to schedule tough games because they know they have the easiest path to the title game out of all the conferences. They have a weaker league, only play eight conference games, they don't have a conference championship game and they end the earliest. As we’ve seen in recent years, the best team in the conference almost always goes undefeated or has one loss, which is basically all you need for consideration for the title game.
The only problem is…those teams have made the title game (2006-07 Ohio State) and then gotten exposed for being frauds...,ala UPS in Rose Bowl!
Now that the credibility of the league is at an all-time low, it’s time to scrap that strategy and do something that makes the teams better. From now on they should ignore the local small schools (Youngstown, Ohio, Temple, Eastern Michigan, etc) and try to schedule games against middle of the pack teams from the SEC, Big East or Pac-10. Yes, this will lead to the Big Ten champion probably having two or three losses and not getting a chance to play for the championship, but at least they’ll be ready to hold their own in the Rose Bowl and possibly win the dang game one of these years.
___________________________________________________________________________________________
BIG TEN CONFERENCE SOS 2008
Best Schedule: Michigan, fifth overall, score of 50.71
Worst Schedule: Penn State, 99th, 76.28
Average SSOS Score: 63.69
____________________________________________________________________________________________
And this article following 2008 season....When comparing BCS standings and arguing SOS or who
deserves to be ranked where, there's a tendency to cite sagarin as the
'bible' of computers. A better approach might be to look at more of the
computers in the BCS mix. So here are the SOS rankings for sagarin,
colley/matrix, and massey, three of the six BCS computers (the other 3
do not publish their SOS rankings, or at least i couldn't find them).
Team, then Sagarin, Colley, Massey SOS rating and average of all 3:
PSU: 65, 86, 69 ... average = 73.3
Texas: 7,2, 4 ..... average = 4.3
Florida: 10, 7, 5 ..... average = 7.3
Alabama: 55, 60, 41 .... average = 52
Texas Tech: 64, 96, 55 ... average = 71.6
USC: 29, 57, 30 ......... average = 38.7
Oklahoma: 38, 35, 24 ...... average = 32.3
So we see that (1) everyone agrees that UF and Texas have played brutal
schedules, (2) PSU has played the easiest schedule, with TT close on
their heels, (3) USC, OK, and Bama are in the middle, with Bama being on
the soft side. USC's SOS isn't as bad as the rep, because they have
played decent OOC teams. They are harmed by the Pac10's suckiness.
____________________________________________________________________________________________
WE ALL LOVE SAGARIN.....2009 Conference Ranking
CONFERENCE CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS
1 SOUTHEAST (A) = 81.99 81.83 ( 1) 12
2 PAC-10 (A) = 79.47 79.63 ( 2) 10
3 BIG 12 (A) = 78.62 78.35 ( 3) 12
4 BIG EAST (A) = 77.46 77.12 ( 4) 8
5 ACC (A) = 75.21 74.98 ( 5) 12
6 BIG TEN (A) = 74.63 74.17 ( 6) 11
7 MTN WEST (A) = 70.95 70.84 ( 7) 9
UPS SCHEDULE RANK: Penn State ( 63)
The out of conference strength for any team is calculated by:
St = (((0.9 * H) + (1.1 * A) + (0.7 * h) + (0.8 * a) -(0.9 * C)) / (H + A + h + a + C))
H = Home games against BCS teams (and Notre Dame)
A = Neutral or Away games against BCS teams (and Notre Dame)
h = Home games against non-BCS teams
a = Away games against non-BCS teams
C = Cupcakes, games against any team that doesn’t fall into one of the above categories ie 1aa teams.
The out of conference strength for any conference is calculated by:
Sc = SUM(St) / COUNT(St)
* The Pac 10 plays very few cupcakes, not to mention a round-robin schedule
* The teams that finish towards the top of their division / conference standings play a tougher out of conference schedule.
* Massive quantities of numbers can be prescribed instead of Ambien
ACC
H A h a C St
Florida State 1 2 0 0 1 0.55
Boston College 0 1 2 0 1 0.4
Maryland 1 1 1 0 1 0.45
Wake Forest 2 0 0 1 1 0.425
Clemson 0 1 2 0 1 0.4
N. C.St. 2 0 0 0 2 0
Virginia Tech 1 1 1 1 0 0.875
Georgia Tech 1 2 0 0 1 0.55
North Car. 0 1 1 0 2 0
Miami 1 1 0 1 1 0.475
Virginia 1 0 1 1 1 0.375
Duke 0 1 0 1 2 0.025
0.377083333
Big 12
H A h a C St
Missouri 0 1 1 1 1 0.425
Nebraska 0 1 3 0 0 0.8
Kansas 1 0 2 1 0 0.775
Kansas St 0 1 0 1 2 0.025
Colorado 0 1 2 1 0 0.825
Iowa St 1 0 2 1 0 0.775
Texas 0 0 3 1 0 0.725
Oklahoma 0 2 1 0 1 0.5
Tex Tech 0 0 2 1 1 0.325
Ok St 1 0 2 0 1 0.35
Baylor 1 1 1 0 1 0.45
Tex A&M 0 1 3 0 0 0.8
0.564583333
Big East
H A h a C St
Cincinnati 1 1 1 1 1 0.52
Pittsburgh 1 1 1 1 1 0.52
West Virginia 1 1 2 0 1 0.5
Rutgers 0 1 1 1 2 0.16
Connecticut 1 2 0 1 1 0.6
South Florida 1 1 0 1 2 0.2
Louisville 0 1 2 1 1 0.48
Syracuse 2 1 1 0 1 0.54
0.44
Big Ten
H A h a C St
Penn State 1 0 2 0 1 0.35
Ohio State 1 0 2 1 0 0.775
Michigan State 0 1 2 0 1 0.4
Iowa 1 1 1 0 1 0.45
Northwestern 0 1 2 0 1 0.4
Minnesota 1 1 1 0 1 0.45
Wisconsin 0 1 2 0 1 0.4
Illinois 0 2 1 0 1 0.5
Purdue 1 1 2 0 0 0.85
Michigan 1 0 2 0 1 0.35
Indiana 0 1 1 1 1 0.425
0.486363636
Pac 10
H A h a C St
USC 0 2 1 0 0 0.966666667
Oregon 1 0 1 1 0 0.8
Oregon State 1 0 0 1 1 0.266666667
California 1 1 0 0 1 0.366666667
Arizona 0 1 1 0 1 0.3
Stanford 1 1 1 0 0 0.9
Arizona State 0 1 1 0 1 0.3
UCLA 1 1 1 0 0 0.9
Wash State 0 1 2 0 0 0.833333333
Washington 1 1 1 0 0 0.9
0.653333333
SEC
H A h a C St
Florida 1 0 2 0 1 0.35
Georgia 1 2 0 0 1 0.55
Vanderbilt 1 0 1 1 1 0.375
South Carolina 1 1 1 0 1 0.45
Tennessee 1 0 3 0 0 0.75
Kentucky 1 0 1 1 1 0 .375
Alabama 0 1 2 0 1 0.4
Mississippi 0 0 1 1 2 -0.075
LSU 0 1 3 0 0 0.8
Auburn 1 0 2 0 1 0.35
Arkansas 0 1 2 0 1 0.4
Miss St 1 0 1 1 1 0.375
0.425
____________________________________________________________________________________________
I think the Big Ten’s problems aren’t because the teams are not good enough to compete; it is simply because they are not prepared to compete. After doing the research and "crunching the numbers" from the past three years (where the Big Ten went 0-6 in the BCS), I realized that the Big Ten has had one of the softest strength of schedules over the past three years, and was by far the softest in 2008.
According to Jeff Sagarin’s strength of schedule rankings (which rates every team's SOS in Division I from 1 to 242, 1 being the toughest), the average SOS rank of the top-5 Big Ten teams this year was 55. The SEC was the highest with an average rank of 19.2
Here’s a look at the out of conference games by the top-5 Big Ten teams in 2008.
Penn State (4-0): Coastal Carolina, Oregon State, @Syracuse, Temple
Ohio State (3-1): Youngstown State, Ohio, @ (1)USC, Troy
Michigan State (3-1): @Cal, Eastern Michigan, Florida Atlantic, Notre Dame
Iowa (3-1): Maine, Florida International, Iowa State, @Pitt
Northwestern (4-0): Syracuse, @Duke, Southern Illinois, Ohio
Out of the top-5 Big Ten teams, only one played a ranked out of conference game (OSU@USC). The Big Ten is simply not good enough for their teams to get away with playing such soft outside competition. Teams like Coastal Carolina, Duke, Youngstown State and Florida International/Atlantic do nothing to improve their teams. Ohio State might as well have had intrasquad scrimmages than play some of these games. Just look at the picture above and tell me Youngstown State doesn't look like a team you would see on Friday Night Lights. Beanie Wells looks like he's a counselor at Offense-Defense peewee summer camp.
In most facets of life, success comes through meaningful experience. A failure to challenge yourself makes it much harder to reach your potential through these experiences.
I have a feeling Big Ten teams are reluctant to schedule tough games because they know they have the easiest path to the title game out of all the conferences. They have a weaker league, only play eight conference games, they don't have a conference championship game and they end the earliest. As we’ve seen in recent years, the best team in the conference almost always goes undefeated or has one loss, which is basically all you need for consideration for the title game.
The only problem is…those teams have made the title game (2006-07 Ohio State) and then gotten exposed for being frauds...,ala UPS in Rose Bowl!
Now that the credibility of the league is at an all-time low, it’s time to scrap that strategy and do something that makes the teams better. From now on they should ignore the local small schools (Youngstown, Ohio, Temple, Eastern Michigan, etc) and try to schedule games against middle of the pack teams from the SEC, Big East or Pac-10. Yes, this will lead to the Big Ten champion probably having two or three losses and not getting a chance to play for the championship, but at least they’ll be ready to hold their own in the Rose Bowl and possibly win the dang game one of these years.
___________________________________________________________________________________________
BIG TEN CONFERENCE SOS 2008
Best Schedule: Michigan, fifth overall, score of 50.71
Worst Schedule: Penn State, 99th, 76.28
Average SSOS Score: 63.69
____________________________________________________________________________________________
And this article following 2008 season....When comparing BCS standings and arguing SOS or who
deserves to be ranked where, there's a tendency to cite sagarin as the
'bible' of computers. A better approach might be to look at more of the
computers in the BCS mix. So here are the SOS rankings for sagarin,
colley/matrix, and massey, three of the six BCS computers (the other 3
do not publish their SOS rankings, or at least i couldn't find them).
Team, then Sagarin, Colley, Massey SOS rating and average of all 3:
PSU: 65, 86, 69 ... average = 73.3
Texas: 7,2, 4 ..... average = 4.3
Florida: 10, 7, 5 ..... average = 7.3
Alabama: 55, 60, 41 .... average = 52
Texas Tech: 64, 96, 55 ... average = 71.6
USC: 29, 57, 30 ......... average = 38.7
Oklahoma: 38, 35, 24 ...... average = 32.3
So we see that (1) everyone agrees that UF and Texas have played brutal
schedules, (2) PSU has played the easiest schedule, with TT close on
their heels, (3) USC, OK, and Bama are in the middle, with Bama being on
the soft side. USC's SOS isn't as bad as the rep, because they have
played decent OOC teams. They are harmed by the Pac10's suckiness.
____________________________________________________________________________________________
WE ALL LOVE SAGARIN.....2009 Conference Ranking
CONFERENCE CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS
1 SOUTHEAST (A) = 81.99 81.83 ( 1) 12
2 PAC-10 (A) = 79.47 79.63 ( 2) 10
3 BIG 12 (A) = 78.62 78.35 ( 3) 12
4 BIG EAST (A) = 77.46 77.12 ( 4) 8
5 ACC (A) = 75.21 74.98 ( 5) 12
6 BIG TEN (A) = 74.63 74.17 ( 6) 11
7 MTN WEST (A) = 70.95 70.84 ( 7) 9
UPS SCHEDULE RANK: Penn State ( 63)