Assessing the Roster at the All Star Break

High School & College Sports Enthusiast Jim Hammett breaks it down for you!
Post Reply
Crimson's Ghost
Moderator Team
Moderator Team
Posts: 11200
Joined: June 24th, 2011, 10:43 am

Assessing the Roster at the All Star Break

Post by Crimson's Ghost »

The Pirates ride into the All Star Break on a bit of a high note.  They won 9 of their last 11 games, and closed the gap in the division to 7 1/2 games.  Normally being in second place 7.5 games out of first isn't something to celebrate, but they nearly cut the Cubs' lead in half. The Pirates stormed into the break, while the Cubs limped into it.  Arrieta is struggling, Heyward has been a disappointment, injuries are mounting, in other words, they are coming back down to earth like everyone else.  It was a historic start, sure, but the length of a baseball season is a grind.  So while the Pirates had a disastrous June, and Chicago had a historically good start, 7.5 games doesn't seem so bad.  Oh yeah, the Cardinals are right there too, but winning 3/4 in St. Louis earlier last week sure felt good in the Bucs standing with the Cards. 

So 7.5 games is the number. Can they still get the division?  I mean, obviously yes.  7.5 is a comfortable lead, but it's not a stranglehold either. My money would still be on Chicago, but the Pirates finally showed they can beat them.  Heck if the Pirates won a game or two head to head with them towards the beginning of the year, the lead would be even smaller. Still, the Wild Card seems to be something to fight for, and it will sure be a fight. Unlike last year, all three divisions will have teams fighting for a spot. The Dodgers, Mets, Cardinals, and Marlins are all in the race.  I think the Marlins will fade. I think the Pirates are better than the Cardinals, and seem to be pretty close with teams like New York and LA. 

The schedule in the second half softens a bit as well. After weeks of grueling games and match-ups, the Pirates get plenty of games with Milwaukee, Cincinnati, and Philadelphia in the second half.  If the Pirates take advantage, they can really rack their win total and make a push at the central division, at the very least. 

Here is a look at where the Pirates' roster stands going into the second half.  Should they make moves at the deadline? Bring up some younger guys?  Or just stand pat, and get their main guys healthy. 

Catcher - So currently the Pirates top three catches are on the DL.  Francisco Cervelli, Chris Stewart and prospect Elias Diaz.  Cervelli was in the midst of a mildly disappointing season anyway, but he's still the best option at the plate and defensively. Getting him back would be a big boost, and that seems to be happening soon. He's been catching and taking batting practice, so it appears to be close. It's a shame he signed that contract, and wasn't able to back it up on the field. Chris Stewart could opt for surgery and end his season, that was according to the Tribune Review on Wednesday.  We'll see if he goes that route or rehabs and tries to get back later in the year.  Either way, he won't be around for a while.  So with those two injuries, the Pirates felt compelled to add Eric Kratz and Eric Fryer, two journeymen catchers that both had stops in Pittsburgh at some point. Fryer actually shows some hitting prowess, and I think he'll stick around longer than Kratz. Diaz is rehabbing now, and could be an option eventually.  

Upgrade or No? : Honestly, getting Cervelli back will be a big enough addition.  He's an important part of this team. He's good defensively and was the team's leading hitter last season. He had a pretty bad slump in May, but we all know he can hit.  Cervelli also brings energy and leadership (two overrated qualities, but some point to it) but I do think he helps the team being on the field.  Fryer seems like an OK backup, obviously the organization feels Diaz can play also.  So Stewart's extended absence shouldn't be a big enough worry for Huntington to make a move. 

First Base - John Jaso in one thought: he's OK.  That's it, nothing more nothing less.  John Jaso is an OK first basemen. He's a league average defender, and that's fine because he replaced the league's worst defensive first basemen in Pedro Alvarez.  So in that sense, he's a significant upgrade.  His .275 average is fine, his .350 OBP is meh, he's poked out 4 homers and has had some big hits.  As I said, he's just OK. Sean Rodriguz has been streaky, but he's been a fine option this year and is having a pretty good year home run wise with 10 on the season. David Freese has been a great addition and he's mainly a third basemen, but the Pirates have given him enough opportunities at first for him to play there at an extended period if needed. 

Upgrade or No? :  Josh Bell. Do they give him the chance? In a very small sample size, it's hard to argue against it.  Still, it sounds the Pirates may send him back to AAA, and I think that's the wrong move.  Give him a few starts a week here, let him pinch hit, slowly work him into being the everyday starter. He's the long term answer, Jaso was meant to be his filler. But in a sense, a stop gap or filler shouldn't roadblock a top prospect.  It's apparent Bell is ready.  Like I said Jaso is OK, and more than capable, but did you see that grand slam Saturday? Bell being here could be a jolt, that swing is electric and worth playing more and more. 

Second Base - Josh Harrison is having a mostly good year. He was fantastic in April and May, but June like for most of the Pirates, was a disaster. JHay has been better in recent weeks, so hopefully that's a sign of him getting back on track. His defense has been good, he's been stealing bases pretty well. He's brought a lot, and really given the Pirates no reason to miss Neil Walker.  He's batting 20 points higher than the Pittsburgh kid, he's driven in four more runs despite having a lower home run total, and as I mentioned his speed and defense have been an upgrade.  The Pirates probably should have gotten something better than Neise for Walker, but as a player himself, they aren't missing much. Adam Frazier has been good in his brief stint in Pittsburgh, he can definitely handle himself here if need be. 

Upgrade or no? : Josh Harrison is a solid major league second basemen, it would be hard to find an upgrade nor any reason to go look for one either. Adam Frazier would be an adequate option here, as would Sean Rodriguez, in the event of an injury to Harrison. Alen Hanson is still in the minors, and it's hard to write him off entirely, but it seems he was passed over by Frazier. Max Moroff is another prospect type in the minors, but it would take an emergency for him to get here this season. 

Third Base - Jung ho-Kang is having a relatively productive season. After that devastating injury last year, it was hard to even predict how he would be this season.  11 home runs at the break with no games in April played? That's really good.   He really truly is the Pirates best power threat. He's been slumping lately, and that could coincide with his offield issues.  And look, I know he's facing very serious allegations, and we don't know how it will unfold.  So it's hard to predict what will happen, for now he's playing and like I said, he is a strong power threat as long as he is around.  David Freese has been the best free agent signing of the year for the team. He's pretty comparable to Kang in terms of talent, and there isn't a dropoff when he is in the lineup. 

Upgrade or no ? : Right now you have Kang and Freese, and that's a great duo.  We'll see what happens to Kang.  If he's found guilty, you almost have to release him. But charges haven't even been filed yet, so at this point there's no way of properly analyzing his situation until we learn more information. Freese is very good, and there's no reason to bring in any help here Kang's status or not. 

Shortstop - The Pirates have played 89 games, and Jordy Mercer has been at shortstop for 84 of them. He's hitting a solid .270 and is second in the NL in feilding percentage among shortstops.  He's not flashy but he makes plays. He's not a great hitter but .270 is fairly good, and far from a liability.  In other words, he's a league average middle of the road type shortstop.  The only issue, the Pirates don't really have a backup for him.  I guess in a pinch it would be Sean Rodriguez and then Josh Harrison and Adam Frazier in extreme circumstances also. 

Upgrade or no? : Pirate fans always look at the roster and figure, "why not get a better shortstop?".  Like I mentioned above, Mercer is a decent hitter and a good fielder. So the only way to upgrade here is to get a really good shortstop, which would be more of a luxury than a need. Also, the cost would be rather high for a luxury not a need. 

Left Field - Starling Marte is going to his first ever All Star game. He's coming off a gold glove season for his defense, he's second in the NL in steals, he's hitting for a career high .316 at the break.  In other words, he can do it all.  I'd like to see some more power, but at that point that's nitpicking. The 27 year old is now entering what looks like will be his prime years, and it looks like the Pirates have a superstar-like player in left for a few more seasons. 

Upgrade or no? : I mean obviously not an upgrade here, but even for depth purposes they are still fine. Sean 3Rodriguez can handle time in left, as can Matt Joyce  - another great signing for Huntington might I add. Frazier is another guy that can play anywhere if needed. Alen Hanson has been playing left down in AAA as another insurance policy. An injury to Marte would be pretty devastating to this team's success. As long as he's healthy, the Bucs should be in good shape. 

Center Field - Andrew McCutchen is having his worst season ever. He's batting a measly .247, his previous five seasons in batting average, .292, .314, .317, .327, .259, so it's a pretty significant dropoff this year.  He's been to the past five all star games, been in the last 4 MVP races, so it's a bizarre step back for one of the game's elite players. His strikeouts are up in a big way, he's not getting the walks he used to get, he doesn't look as fast.  He went from MVP level to below average in a year's time.  It's hard to fathom, especially since he's only 29 years old. This kind of decline shouldn't be happening yet. Cutch has been good in July, so hopefully he can carry that after the break. You almost hate to see the All Star break come for him.   

Upgrade or no? : All the trade rumors swirled back in June when the Pirates promoted top outfield prospect, Austin Meadows, from AA to AAA. It was an aggressive promotion for the Pirates, who generally are more reserved with their top end talent. Could that mean something for McCutchen and his status down the line? Sure - but Cutch is here for now, and the best thing for everyone is for him to start playing like himself again. 

Right Field - Gregory Polanco was probably a snub for the All Star game, but given his lingering injuries the past few weeks, the days off will do more for him and the team than going to San Diego anyway. After signing that extension earlier in the year, Polanco has played the best baseball of his career. He has a sweet swing and using it for more power. His arm and speed are still around. I think the future is incredibly bright for him, and his best baseball is ahead of him.   

Upgrade or no ?: If Polanco ever went down with an injury, Matt Joyce has shown enough that he can be an everyday guy for this team. Like almost any other position, Rodriguez and Frazier can play here if they needed them to do so. 

Starting Pitching - Oh boy, where does one even begin to discuss this debacle?  It's been bad all year, and that's putting it lightly. Gerrit Cole has been the only good one, but missed the past month on the DL.  Liriano went from a legitimate #2 starter to a complete disaster.  John Niese has been bad, Jeff Locke is being himself, Nicasio found his way to the bullpen, which looks like a better fit.  After that, the kids started coming.  Taillon looked impressive mostly, and should stick.  Tyler Glasnow's first start was pretty good, Chad Kuhl looks a bit over his head, and Steven Brault handled himself given the circumstances.  So from that scrapheap of pitchers, they need to find 5 to be in the post break rotation, nobody knows who it will be just yet.  Here's my guess...

1. Gerrit Cole
2. Jameson Taillon
3. Francisco Liriano
4. Tyler Glasnow
5. Jeff Locke
I think they ultimately trade Niese. Chad Kuhl returns to the Indianapolis rotation, but will be the first guy called when needed. Brault will be another option for spot starts himself.  I think even Vogelsong can get a chance when he gets back from the DL. 

Upgrade or no?: Probably not. I think they'll look at Tyler Glasnow and Jameson Taillon as their upgrades.  If Cole can regain his normal form, if Liriano gets marginally better, and the kids pitch like we hope they can, the team's pitching will naturally just get better. 

Bullpen - As a whole, it's been disappointing but their struggles can be attributed to bad starting pitching.  Starters aren't lasting as long, thus taxing the bullpen more, it only makes sense. Here's how I view the current 7 members of the pen.
Melancon - very good, trending steady. Another All Star year for him. 
Watson - Good, trending steady. Not as good as we're used to, still not bad. 
Feliz - Very good, trending steady.  The Pirates once again have seemingly fixed a pitcher from the scrap heap. 
Hughes - Bad, trending downward. Good outing on Saturday, but he's been bad all year. 
Caminero -  Bad, trending up.  He's a streaky pitcher, he's on a good one at the moment, but the bad could be right around the corner. 
Nicasio - Good, trending up. His move to the pen has been mostly good. 
Schugel - OK, trending steady.  Schugel emerged from a mess of revolving pitchers as the best one. 

Beyond that, they have Vogelsong as an option. They also have Partch, Lobstein, and Boscan among others in AAA as depth.  Duncan and Neverauskus are more prospects that could eventually be good major league relievers. 

Upgrade or no? :  YES.  The pen has gotten better in recent weeks, but during a stretch run you could always use an extra arm.  Why not look around and see what's there?  
Manfred
Official BleacherCoach
Official BleacherCoach
Posts: 6261
Joined: August 2nd, 2009, 7:23 pm

Re: Assessing the Roster at the All Star Break

Post by Manfred »

Excellent, excellent analysis! I really enjoy reading these, as I don't always follow every game. One name I didn't see, and don't know his status- is he even still there in the organization- Casey Sadler.
It ain't over until it's over.
User avatar
12HankQB
Official BleacherCoach
Official BleacherCoach
Posts: 2817
Joined: August 29th, 2009, 4:32 pm
Location: Mile 129

Re: Assessing the Roster at the All Star Break

Post by 12HankQB »

CG, as always very great write-up. This past week/weekend has been exciting to say the least. We were back to the point where if we gave up a few runs, we knew we'd get them right back. Confidence is starting to soar. We we're very close to having an undefeated July thus far. Winning yesterday would've had us at 5 1/2 games back. 
I've said it before, I'll take our lineup top to bottom over the longball reliable Cubs any day. If this pitching shows us what they're capable of and we can stay healthy in the field. Watch out! We don't want the Wild Card, keep chasing the division.
If only closed minds came with closed mouths
User avatar
DragonsDoExist
Official BleacherCoach
Official BleacherCoach
Posts: 4944
Joined: September 10th, 2012, 1:49 pm

Re: Assessing the Roster at the All Star Break

Post by DragonsDoExist »

Buster Olney just said he believes the Pirates catch the Cubs based on schedule strength.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
You play to win the game!!!
Crimson's Ghost
Moderator Team
Moderator Team
Posts: 11200
Joined: June 24th, 2011, 10:43 am

Re: Assessing the Roster at the All Star Break

Post by Crimson's Ghost »

Manfred wrote:Excellent, excellent analysis!  I really enjoy reading these, as I don't always follow every game.  One name I didn't see, and don't know his status- is he even still there in the organization- Casey Sadler.
He's been on the DL for quite some time.  Brandon Cumpton and Nick Kingham are two other names on the AAA roster that have yet to pitch this year, but they were all once considered depth, and Kingham was/is actually still thought of as a pretty good prospect.  In fact, Kingham just started his rehab in the lower levels of the minors. Glasnow is considered the organization's top prospect by MLB.com, Taillon was #4. Kuhl checked in at 16, and Brault #17.    Nick Kingham is ranked 12th, so in a perfect world where he's healthy, he would've passed over Kuhl and Brault in the pecking order. 

But as far as Sadler, I don't think much is expected of him this year. 
Crimson's Ghost
Moderator Team
Moderator Team
Posts: 11200
Joined: June 24th, 2011, 10:43 am

Re: Assessing the Roster at the All Star Break

Post by Crimson's Ghost »

DragonsDoExist wrote:Buster Olney just said he believes the Pirates catch the Cubs based on schedule strength.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Yes, the schedule is definitely more manageable coming up, and Buster tends to think highly of the Pirates in general. 
User avatar
voncap
Official BleacherCoach
Official BleacherCoach
Posts: 525
Joined: August 22nd, 2003, 9:26 am

Re: Assessing the Roster at the All Star Break

Post by voncap »

Great piece CG.  Some of my thoughts from the first part of the season and going forward.    

Obviously the winning the past two weeks has fueled optimism, but when looking at this team's starting pitching it is difficult to believe those winning ways can be maintained.  Cole will instantly improve the starting pitching, but if Hurdle has to run all of  Liriano, Neise, and Locke out every five days, it is difficult to see the Pirates in the Wild Card race let alone winning the division.   Of those on the current 25 man roster, one could argue that Jeff Locke is the current ace of the staff.  'Double Yoy!'

To show just how bad those three have been:  There are 49 pitchers in the National league with enough innings to be considered qualifiers.  In regards to ERA those three hold three (46, 47, & 48) of the last four spots on the list.  In Re to WHIP Niese and Lariano are next to last and last with Locke checking in at number 41.    Those three have been absolutely terrible.   Yeah the glass half full guy will say they have no where to go but up, but I am not so sure.  

Cutch must perform better offensively if this team has any hope of making the playoffs.  A .245 BA and .745 OPS are not going to cut it.  

 Two members on the current roster I do not expect to see on the team in September are Melancon and Kang.  Kang because of the off field issue , and Melancon because I don't think the FO has any intention of signing him for next year, nor should they for 10 mill, and they will try to get something for him.

If this team has any chance of being in the playoffs, the young guys are going to have carry a big load, and that is a lot to expect from so many rookies at one time.  Hopefully they can handle it and the winning continues.  
The easiest thing to do in sports is hustle.
Manfred
Official BleacherCoach
Official BleacherCoach
Posts: 6261
Joined: August 2nd, 2009, 7:23 pm

Re: Assessing the Roster at the All Star Break

Post by Manfred »

Another fine assessment, voncap. I think this bunch of young guys has proven they can get it done at all levels as they have moved from A ball to the majors. Maybe not 'phenom' immediately, but for the long run. CG, thanks for the minors update. I don't go researching what happens down there, and rely on the tidbits the Buc announcers throw out when I actually watch the games. I'd forgotten, too, about Cumpton & Kingham, likely because of their not playing.
It ain't over until it's over.
223113
Official BleacherCoach
Official BleacherCoach
Posts: 456
Joined: October 23rd, 2014, 6:09 pm

Re: Assessing the Roster at the All Star Break

Post by 223113 »

Top to bottom, excellent evaluation of all aspects...love it.
Looking forward to the 2nd half of the season.
When the Bucs were 14 out, and most people were resigned to the thought that the Pirates only hope of reaching the playoffs was as a Wildcard, I kept saying, "Don't be so quick to pull the plug on their Division hopes. It's a marathon, not a sprint." I still think the Bucs will overtake the Cubs.
Post Reply